Conference Agenda
Conference Day One:
Wednesday 27th February 2008
8.30 Conference registration & morning coffee
9.00 Opening remarks from the Chairman
Opening presentations
9.10 Welcoming address
Metin Kalkavan, Chairman, Turkish Chamber of Shipping
9.20 New developments in the dry bulk shipping market
Jeremy Penn, Chief Executive, Baltic Exchange
9.50 Overview of the freight market & impacts of port congestion
Chris Tomlinson, Freight Analyst, Thurlestone Shipping
10.20 Questions from the audience
10.30 Morning coffee
Outlook for seaborne dry bulk trade
11.00 Global steel outlook
• World crude steel production growth outlook
• Demand growth projections
• Growing markets to watch closely (other than China)
Anthony de Carvalho, OECD
11.30 The iron ore market outlook
• World iron ore demand continues increasing, but the question is how long it can increase at present rates
• Factors that will limit further price increases
• The relationship between freight rates, the competitiveness of iron ore producers and international
trade flows for iron ore
• Will there be a return to lower iron ore prices and if so, will it affect freight markets?
Olle Ostensson, Chief, Diversification and Natural Resources Section - Commodities Branch, UNCTAD
12.00 Coking coal
• Taking a look at import demand – China, EU & Japan
• Emerging markets
• Impact of supply side production expansions
• Seaborne trade outlook
Speaker to be advised
12.30 Questions from the audience
12.40 Lunch
1.40 Seaborne thermal coal trade
• Coal production
• Coal chain
• Coal exports
• Coal imports
• Trade outlook
Martin Bloemendal, Director, Energy Edge
2.10 Turkish thermal coal imports – An expanding market accompanying sustainable economic growth
• Turkey: A brief view
• Overview of Turkish thermal coal imports
• Sized steam coal imports for the household heating sector: Where it is headed to?
• Power sector: More imported steam coal for new import coal fired power plants projects
• Cement Sector: Requiring more imported steam coal for growing Turkish cement industry
• Challenges & opportunities for Turkish thermal coal imports
• Enisa Group
Yavuz TASDELEN, General Co-ordinator, ENISA Group
2.40 The outlook for the grains market
• Global grain trade & exports by region
• Chinese/Indian oilseed production & consumption forecast
• Wheat, corn & barley market outlook
• The outlook for 2008
Keith Davies, Managing Director, Glencore Grains
3.10 Questions from the audience
3.20 Afternoon coffee
3.50 Fertilizer trade & shipping
• Overview of global seaborne trade in fertilizers
• Fertilizer logistics & freight costs
• Fertilizer demand outlook
• Forecast of global seaborne trade in fertilizers
Ashok Shinh, British Sulphur Consultants – CRU Group
4.20 World sugar market outlook
• The market place overview
• Major trade flows
• Exporters to watch - Brazil, India, Middle East destination sugar refineries
• Recent trends and prospects for seaborne sugar trade
Sergey Gudoshnikov, Senior Economist, International Sugar Organisation
4.50 Recent trends in world cement industry and global cement flows
• In recent years, overseas shipments of cement and related products exceeded 130 million tons but as freight rates reach record high levels will cargoes with relatively low value such as cement survive? What are the limits?
• The future of cement as dry bulk cargo. An overview of world cement market and overseas cement flows, with emphasis on European flows.
- Overview of global cement market and overseas flows
- The effects of freight rate increases in cement world
- Where will major changes occur in cement routes? Which cement routes risk to disappear in the future? Where are new flows appearing?
- What will be the effect of acceleration in global cement capacity in overseas cement flows?
- The new trends in European cement export and import market in view of environmental concerns and CO2 taxation
Emir Adiguzel, President, HC Trading
5.20 Questions from the audience
5.30 Close of day one from the Chairman
Lloyd List invites all speakers & delegates to attend an informal cocktail reception to discuss the day’s presentations
Conference Day Two:
Thursday 28th February 2008
9.00 Morning coffee
9.20 Opening remarks from the Chairman:
A review of day one presentations
Operational issues affecting the dry bulk shipping industry
9.30 Issues affecting the carriage of bulk cargo
Roger Holt, Secretary General, International Association of Dry Cargo Ship Owners – INTERCARGO
10.00 Safe Handling and Carriage: HOT BRIQUETTED IRON (HBI)
Ido Gibellini, HBIA - Transportation Committee
10.30 Questions from the audience
10.40 Morning tea
Spotlight on bunkers
11.10 Issues affecting the bunker & shipping industries
• The revision of MARPOL Annex VI
• Ship to Ship Transfers
• MSDS
Ian Adams, Secretary General, International Bunker Industry Association
11.40 Trends & market developments in the bunker market
Angus Ogilvie, Director, Cockett Marine Oil
12.10 Questions from the audience
12.20 Lunch
Fleet outlook
1.20 The demand for Handysize & Handymax vessels
• Major bulk demand
• Minor bulk demand
• Tonne-mile demand
• Vessel utilisation
• Forecast demand
Susan Oatway, Associate, Drewry Shipping Consultants
1.50 The Capesize & Panamax sectors
• Recent developments in vessel demand
• Changes in the fleet (volume and structure)
• Recent developments in freight rates & prices
• The future outlook for vessel demand
• Forward trends in the fleet
• Overall market prospects
Steve Hanrahan, Director, Ocean Shipping Consultants
2.20 Questions from the audience
2.30 Afternoon coffee
3.00 World shipbuilding outlook
• New construction overview
• Shipbuilding capacity
• Future developments
Gary Morgan, Market Analyst, Lloyd’s Register
3.30 Embracing risk management
• Risk management: Integral to corporate strategy in shipping?
• Behavioral economics, risk appetites and decision making
• Identifying and quantifying risks to the organisation
• Nice risk model, but does it really help? Or hinder?
• Risk management systems - putting it all together
Jeffrey McGee, Senior Consultant, Drewry Shipping Consultants
4.00 Questions from the audience
Final panel
4.10 The outlook for freight rates – Where to next?
At the conclusion of the day’s presentation all speakers will be invited to take the stage in an open floor discussion on the future outlook for the dry bulk shipping market.
4.30 Closing remarks from the chairman & close of conference
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